2015 Derby Picks

Normally,  I look for a big price horse, but this year going a little “chalky”.

Ordered by post position. Top 5 choices below.

1. Ocho Ocho Ocho; 50-1; seems like sprinter, bad post position, no thanks. “He eight my bankroll”
2. Carpe Diem; 8-1; very classy with a tough post, can get the 1 1/4 miles but I sense that he is a bit soft for this scrum, cannot fault his bettors at this price. “Sees the Roses?”
3. Materiality; 12-1; lightly raced with a lot of talent, will need superior talent to win it and will have to prove it to me.  “Not enough substance”
4. Tencendur; 50-1; has had only one race that shows he belongs in the Ky Derby and that was his last one. That said, I expect him to run well.  “Can you spare a dime?”
5. Danzig Moon; 30-1; one of several in race that really hasn’t shown much, but he could be making tracks late to pick up minor share
6. Mubtaahij; 20-1; has never run in the U.S., which hasn’t been a good Derby formula. Very respected trainer and while he may not win, I do not see a clunker in the forecast.
7. El Kabeir, 30-1; has a good foundation and is consistent. Three time winner with Borel aboard, but he’s a cut below and may be injured. “El-Kaput”
8. Dortmund; 3-1; undefeated, improving and is a great battler, he is so huge he may be in trouble if gets in tight quarters, big chance for the money
9. Bolo, 30-1; can’t see it, pass.  “Punchers chance?”
10. Firing Line; 12-1; sharp horse who has battled Dortmund and also dominated in last race. The distance may be his undoing.  “Just shoot me if he wins”
12. International Star; 20-1; likes to win but all at same track, not for me
13. Itsaknockout; 30-1; despite solid record and link to the the big fight on Saturday, he will deliver a punch in the gut to his supporters. “Count to ten”
14. Keen Ice; 50-1; really marginal results, but of the longshots I give him a chance to make a little noise
15. Frosted; 15-1; perplexing. finally put it together in his last race. I could see him winning or finishing 18th. Lean toward the winning.
16. War Story; 50-1; runs same mediocre race each time. Sad story. “Play Taps
17. Mr Z; 50-1; runs a bunch, and in good races, just never wins them. ZZZ…..
18. American Pharoah; 5/2; this horse moves exquisitely, with long, effortless (and fast) strides. Potential monster. I do have some concern about him handling the distance. “Could Rule”
19. Upstart; 15-1; successful, game horse and would stun me if he won, will get wobbly down the stretch.  “Down Finish”
20. Far Right; 50-1; Far back.
21. Frammento; 30-1; very average animal, closing style may lead to ok finish

Top 5

American Pharaoh

Frosted

Dortmund

Mubtaahij

Tencendur

 

2 thoughts on “2015 Derby Picks”

  1. I think your Frosted will be frozen. Darling Dortmund has my money. You missed your chance: #7 should have been “El Kabong.” #1 “Gesundheit.”

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.